Modelling and Forecasting of Population Changes in Jaffna District from 2000-2025

Abstract

Human births, deaths, and migration are the main three demographic components that can lead to population changes in any geographical area. Especially, deaths, migration patterns, the decline of fertility levels, and non-demographic factors such as rapid economic and social changes will impact changing or decreasing the population growth. However, political and civil issues and other spatial, cultural, and ethnic-related barriers also can impact on population growth of a country or a specific area. A large population in an area directly impacts the resources available in that location. Especially it can be directed to enhance the population density, infrastructure issues, and food consumption-related issues, and so on. Especially when considering small-scale regions, those tend to be more conservative and it can be influenced to produce different life patterns as well as different social and demographic patterns. Jaffna district is a small peninsula belonging to Sri Lanka and it was badly faced with thirty years of a civil war between the Sri Lankan government and LTTE. These long-lasting social, civil, and political issues influenced rapid population changes in the Jaffna district and tended to create a diverse population pattern in the district within the war period and after the post-war period. It can be assumed that these population patterns could create different environmental, demographical, and socio-economic implications. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to analyze changing spatial patterns of population density and forecast future population growth in the Jaffna district.